Southeast: Past Peak Supply, but Affordability-Challenged
Originally Published by: JBREC —October 9, 2026
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Key takeaways
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Supply is past its peak. Apartment deliveries continue to decline and single-family permits are about 19% below their 2021 peak.
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Demand fundamentals are solid. South Carolina is the fastest-growing state in the nation. Southeast job growth averages 0.9% over the past year, versus 0.3% nationally.
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Affordability is holding buyers back. Home values are up 57% since February 2020, and renting is notably cheaper than owning, which will weigh on home sales in the near term.
Southeast housing supply: Apartments past peak, single-family permits still high
Fueled by migration trends during the pandemic, construction in the Southeast boomed, with single-family permits reaching a peak in mid-2021. Single-family permits are now running at about 81% of that peak level, which is a significant decline, but still high compared to the rest of the country. Permits have pulled back much further from peak in Atlanta and Nashville, while some smaller markets like Chattanooga and Spartanburg are now reaching new peaks.
Even more dramatic was the surge in multifamily permits, increasing more than 50% in the two years from mid-2021 to mid-2023. The pullback since then has been significant, with rents declining in a number of Southeast MSAs as landlords compete to fill this massive wave of new units. The good news is that the Southeast is past peak deliveries, and rents are starting to flatten.
Oliver Radvin, Principal of Consulting at JBREC, says the rent weakness across the Southeast was a supply problem, not a demand problem:
“Occupancy held while rents fell, which tells you the renters were there and the operators were competing with each other. The projects our clients are sizing today will open into far less competition than the ones delivering now.”
Resale supply remains relatively low in the Southeast compared to other regions, supporting rising home values. Across the region’s largest metros, resale listings average 3.5 months of supply; higher in Nashville (4.1 months) and Atlanta (4.0), and lower in Raleigh-Durham (3.0) and Charlotte (3.4).
Migration and job growth keep Southeast housing demand strong
Look at any map of migration trends in the US, and it’s clear that growth continues to shift Southeast. Momentum has slowed from where it was several years ago, but the Southeast continues to stand out. The Carolinas lead: South Carolina has the fastest rate of population growth in the nation, and North Carolina is not far behind, with Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham showing a healthy ratio of move-ins to move-outs.
Research clients can explore metro and county-level migration trends using interactive maps in their client portal.
Job growth among the region’s largest metro areas averages 0.9% YOY through August 2026, far from stellar, but positive and outpacing the national average of 0.3%. Nashville, Raleigh-Durham, and Charlotte all outperform the national average, boosted by gains in high-income job sectors. Atlanta is losing jobs overall, and the high-income sectors are currently a net drag on the local economy.
Southeast home values are up 57% since 2020, straining affordability
One of the big draws of the Southeast has historically been its housing affordability: housing there takes up a smaller share of local incomes than in most coastal markets. That still holds true, but the Southeast’s 57% gain in home values since February 2020 is second only to South Florida (a separate region in our breakdown) and continues to rise (currently up 1% YOY, according to our Burns Home Value Index).
For local buyers applying for a mortgage at today’s prices and mortgage rates, Southeast housing costs feel 31% more expensive than normal, according to our Burns Under/Overpriced Market Index. For many smaller Southeast MSAs that have experienced rapid growth, affordability challenges are even more acute.
While incomes are growing, our outlook for rising home values and still-elevated mortgage rates means Southeast for-sale affordability remains challenged in the near term. Apartment and single-family rents represent a notable discount to monthly ownership costs. For example, apartment rents in Charlotte and Atlanta are about $1,200 less than the monthly cost of ownership; in Nashville and Raleigh-Durham, the gap is closer to $1,700 per month.
Karen Albright, Manager of Consulting at JBREC, says that gap is changing who actually buys:
“The buyers closing today are older households with equity from a prior home, and younger buyers are mostly on the sidelines. That changes what you should build on a site, and the answer is different submarket to submarket.”
Southeast housing outlook: A clearer path for apartments than for-sale
Apartment builders have the clearer path: deliveries are past peak, rents are flattening, and projects planned today will open into a market with far less new competition. For-sale is tougher. Despite a pullback, single-family permits remain high, and with renting cheaper than owning, home sales will stay under pressure until affordability improves. Over the long run, migration and job growth still favor the Southeast.