Brooks: What if We Aren’t as Underbuilt as Everyone Thinks?
November data is in and there are no surprises in the U.S. housing market: Affordability is in the tank and sales are dropping like a rock.
Existing home sales in November were 4,090,000 annualized, down 39.2% from their October 2020 peak (6,730,000). The median price of an existing single-family home peaked in June at $413,800 and has since fallen 10.4%, to $370,700.
In early December, Fortune polled 20 housing analysts on where home prices are headed. The range of answers tells you pretty much all you need to know about forecasters’ confidence right now. At one end of the scale, the National Association of Realtors predicts 5.4% increase in 2023. At the other end, John Burns Real Estate Consulting sees a 20% to 22% decline by late 2024.
Obviously price declines will be all over the board depending on where you go. The most inflated markets will take the biggest fall. Those that never saw steep increases probably won’t see steep declines.
That puts an interesting spin on the next housing boom.