U.S. Trade Policy Overview: Talks, Deadlines, and Tariff Outlook

For many countries, the reprieve from President Donald Trump’s eye-watering tariffs, which were implemented on April 2 and temporarily reduced to 10% a week later, is soon set to come to an end. 

The 90-day pause, during which the Trump Administration pledged to negotiate deals with trading partners, was set to expire on Wednesday, July 9, but the White House confirmed on Monday that it would push back the start of hiked tariffs to Aug. 1.

Trump also began sharing “letters” to multiple heads of state on Truth Social, alerting them of the tariff rates their countries will face next month if they do not reach deals before then.

“If they call with a different offer, and if I like it, we’ll do it,” Trump told reporters on Monday. He added that the Aug. 1 deadline was “firm but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say we’d like to do something a different way, we’re going to be open to that. But essentially that’s the way it is right now.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that Trump would sign an executive order extending the deadline. The administration will send “additional letters in the coming days” following the initial group, Leavitt said.

Trump also warned in a Truth Social post on Sunday that countries “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.” BRICS, an intergovernmental group of major emerging economies that includes Russia, China, and Iran, condemned tariffs at a Sunday summit.

Smaller trading partners, which were among the hardest hit by Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, have largely been sidelined in negotiations, and U.S. officials have said they are likely to just send those countries “letters.” But experts had said even many major trading partners may not be able to reach deals so fast, and the agreements that have been reached are more broad frameworks with details to be worked out later than concrete deals.

Here’s what we know so far about the Trump Administration’s deals and negotiations with various countries so far.

Bangladesh

Imports from Bangladesh will be tariffed at 35% starting in August if the country doesn’t make a deal with the U.S., Trump said on July 7. The new rate marks a reduction from the initial “reciprocal” tariff of 37% imposed in April. Bangladesh supplies mainly ready-made garments to the U.S., with the sector employing millions of Bangladeshi workers and making up around 80% of the country’s total exports.

Bangladeshi Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told Bloomberg earlier on Monday that the country’s interim government has had “at least seven rounds of negotiations, both virtual and in-person, and we expect a positive outcome.”

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia will face a 30% tariff, per Trump’s letter on July 7. That’s down from the 35% rate initially imposed in April.

Trump initially addressed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s female leader, Željka Cvijanović, as “Mr. President.” He later issued a corrected letter addressed to “Madam President.”

Cambodia

Cambodia will face a 36% tariff starting Aug. 1, down from its initial rate of 49%. 

Canada

Canada has said it is hoping to reach an agreement by July 21. Trump initially cut off talks on June 27 over Canada’s proposed digital services tax, which Trump called “a direct and blatant attack on our Country.” Talks resumed after Ottawa said it was abandoning the policy—a move that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described as Canada having “caved.” Canada was exempt from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs but faced previously announced tariffs amounting to 25% on most goods.

Trump’s ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, said Friday that a deal would be reached with Canada, though he did not say when.

“Canada is one of our biggest trading partners,” Hoekstra said on Canadian outlet CTV News. “We’re going to have a deal that’s articulated.”

“We’re not going to send Canada just a letter,” he added.

China

China and the U.S. reached a deal in June that sets U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports at 55% and Chinese tariffs on American imports at 10%, after agreeing to a truce a month earlier that lowered escalating tit-for-tat tariffs from 145% on Chinese imports to 30% and 125% on American imports to 10%. The world’s two biggest economies also eased restrictions on de minimis packages and agreed to lift export controls, including the sale of certain chip design software and ethane to China and rare earth exports to the U.S.

E.U.

The European Union wants to strike a trade deal “in principle” with the U.S. by the deadline, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week. The E.U. initially faced a 20% “reciprocal” tariff.

“What we are aiming at is an agreement in principle,” von der Leyen said, noting that a detailed deal would be “impossible” before the deadline. “That is also what the U.K. did.”

E.U. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has reportedly been in talks with his U.S. counterparts, but progress around a possible deal has run into some roadblocks. The E.U. has said it will not budge on its strict regulations on social media and technology companies, for one. The 27-member bloc reportedly yielded to a 10% tariff on many of its exports but is seeking lower rates on key sectors, including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, and semiconductors, as well as quotas and exemptions to reduce higher tariffs on autos and metals—which are tariffed separately at 25% and 50%.

India

India is one country that may reach a deal with the U.S. before the deadline, averting Trump’s 27% “reciprocal” tariff rate for the country’s exports. Trump said recently that “a very big” deal with India would come soon, and India’s trade negotiators extended their stay in the U.S. to continue talks through last week. An interim trade deal will likely be finalized before the deadline, unnamed sources told Indian media outlet NDTV.

Still, both sides have toughened their positions on certain key issues. The U.S. wants India to open its market to genetically-modified crops and import more dairy, almonds, soybeans, and other agricultural products from the U.S., while India has been reluctant to lower protections for its domestic farmers. India is willing to lower tariffs on walnuts, fruits, medical devices, autos, and energy products, a source familiar with the negotiations told Reuters, and it has sought concessions on Indian steel and auto parts as well as fabrics and apparel.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s tariff rate, according to a letter Trump sent on July 7, remains unchanged from the 32% levy initially imposed in April. Indonesia is also a member of BRICS, which faces the threat of an additional 10% tariff.

Japan

Japan will be tariffed at 25% beginning Aug. 1, a slight increase from the initial tariff rate of 24%, after Trump in recent weeks cast doubt over reaching a deal with Japan anytime soon. 

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the higher tariff rate “extremely regrettable” and said Japan would continue to work towards a deal while still defending its interests. Ishiba also raised the possibility of speaking directly with Trump.

Progress in negotiations has been stymied by disagreements over Japan’s protections for its politically important domestic rice industry. Trump officials have suggested that Japan tariffs foreign rice at a rate over 700%. In fact, Japan imports 770,000 metric tons of rice every year without any tariffs, around half of which comes from the U.S. Above that, Japan imposes a tariff of ¥341 (about $2.30) per kilogram.

“To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump posted on Truth Social last Monday. “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”

Trump told reporters last Tuesday that Japan ought to “pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine.” 

“I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it with Japan, they’re very tough. You have to understand, they’re very spoiled,” he added.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, however, said on Thursday evening, “talks are steadily but undoubtedly moving forward. There are a wide range of areas including non-tariff barriers that are being covered, but the talks on each of these points are progressing, step by step.”

Talks are also limited by uncertainties around obtaining a deal on autos and metals. Tariffs on both the auto industry and steel and aluminum are subject to pending Commerce Department investigations, which makes negotiating a trade deal without knowing the outcome of those probes challenging. Moreover, Trump has signaled an unwillingness to budge on the 25% auto tariff that would hit Japan’s export economy hard.

“We give Japan no cars, they won’t take our cars, and yet we take millions and millions of their cars into the United States,” Trump said on Fox News. “It’s not fair.”

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, which exports mainly crude oil to the U.S., will be tariffed at a 25% rate, slightly lower than the 27% rate set in April.

Laos

Laos will be tariffed at 40%, lower than the 48% rate it initially faced in April.

Malaysia

Imports from Malaysia will be tariffed at 25% starting Aug. 1, a marginal increase from the 24% levy imposed in April. Malaysia’s top exports to the U.S. are electronic parts.

Myanmar

Myanmar’s tariff rate has been lowered from 44% imposed in April to 40% beginning in August.

Serbia

Serbia will face a 35% tariff starting August, a reduction from the 37% rate imposed in April.

South Africa

South Africa will face a 30% tariff beginning Aug. 1, a small reduction from the 31% rate that was imposed in April. South Africa’s main export to the U.S. is metals and cars, which face separate levies. As a BRICS member, though, South Africa may also face an additional 10% levy.

South Korea

South Korea will face a 25% levy, a slight reduction from the 26% rate it faced in April.

South Korea earlier said it would seek an extension on Trump’s July 9 deadline. “We see this letter as a de facto extension of the grace period for imposing reciprocal tariffs until August 1,” South Korea’s Industry Ministry said in a statement on July 8.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said last Thursday that “it’s still not clear to each side what the other side wants.”

South Korea says it imposes “close to 0” tariffs on the U.S. under a free-trade agreement, with an effective tariff rate of around 0.79%. Trump has said South Korea imposes a tariff “four times higher” than the U.S. Trump has also complained that the U.S. has given South Korea, a key U.S. ally, “so much help militarily” in stationing 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea to protect against the North.

South Korea’s Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on Saturday, proposing a “mutually beneficial” manufacturing partnership in a last-ditch effort to avoid Trump’s tariffs. As a major exporter of cars and steel, South Korea is also vulnerable to Trump’s separate auto and metals tariffs, which the country is seeking to avoid completely.

Thailand

Thailand will face a 36% import duty starting Aug. 1 if no deal is reached before then, which is the same tariff rate initially imposed in April. (The letter to Thailand addressed former acting Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit, though he was replaced by a new acting Prime Minister last week.)

Thailand previously said it expects to reach a tariff deal with the U.S. before the deadline and said it is aiming for more favorable rates than the deal the U.S. recently reached with Vietnam because it has a smaller trade deficit with the U.S. than Vietnam does. “Vietnam’s agreement serves as a benchmark,” Poj Aramwattananont, Thailand’s Chamber of Commerce head, said, according to the Bangkok Post.

Thailand has made a revised proposal with concessions towards reducing its trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% within five years, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira told Bloomberg on Sunday.

Thai negotiators met with U.S. counterparts for in-person trade talks for the first time last week, although officials have had several rounds of online discussions ahead of their visit to Washington. Thailand has proposed reducing tariffs on the U.S., promised to buy more American products, and vowed to crack down on trade fraud.

Tunisia

Tunisia will face a 25% tariff starting Aug. 1, down from the 28% rate initially imposed.

U.K.

The U.K. and the U.S. signed a deal in June, which brought U.S. tariffs on British cars down to 10% from 27.5% and removed tariffs on British aircraft engines and parts. Some details of the deal, though, are not yet finalized, and the two countries are still hammering out an agreement around metals imports.

Vietnam

The U.S. and Vietnam announced a deal on July 2, which would tariff Vietnamese exports to the U.S. at a 20% rate, as opposed to the initial 46% “reciprocal” tariff. Goods deemed to be transshipped, however, will be tariffed at a 40% rate in a measure indirectly targeting China, which has rerouted products through Vietnam to get around past U.S. import duties. In exchange, Vietnam agreed to having no tariffs on U.S. imports, Trump said.

How exactly transshipments will be determined has not yet been made clear, and the deal so far does not make mention of industry-specific tariffs on cars and metals. Vietnam said Thursday that its negotiators are in the process of finalizing the details of the agreement with the U.S., while Bessent said the deal was “finalized in principle.”